Decisions & Problem-Solving

A decision support technique of options plotted on a two-by-two matrix where the matrix diagram is a simple square divided into four equal quadrants. Each axis represents a decision criterion, such as cost or effort. Each axis is divided into two sections (example: low cost/high cost and easy/difficult).

A management term where people make decisions based not on what they actually want to do, but on what they think that other people want to do, resulting in a decision that in fact satisfies no one.

Programming tasks which could be eliminated with better tools (as opposed to essential complexity inherent in the problem being solved).

The notion that the human brain has evolved to reason adaptively, rather than truthfully or even rationally, and that cognitive bias may have evolved as a mechanism to reduce the overall cost of cognitive errors as opposed to merely reducing the number of cognitive errors, when faced with making a decision under conditions of uncertainty.

A cognitive bias where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown.

A project stalled in the analysis phase, unable to achieve support for any of the potential plans of approach.

A common response to a recurring problem that is usually ineffective and risks being highly counterproductive.

An idiom that refers to the apparent differences between items which are popularly thought to be incomparable or incommensurable, such as apples and oranges, as well as to indicate that a false analogy has been made between two items, such as where an apple is faulted for not being a good orange.

A psychological process occurs when an individual has to make a judgment that is computationally complex, and instead substitutes a more easily calculated heuristic attribute. For example, when someone tries to answer a difficult question, they may actually answer a related but different question, without realizing that a substitution has taken place.

A military strategy in which a belligerent party attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material.

The bias that people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest information.

An anecdote describing a frog in a pot of water where the water's temperature is gradually raised to the point of killing the frog without their noticing, but if the frog is placed instantly in hot water, it would jump out immediately.

The notion of optimizing not the action that is taken but the algorithm that is used to choose that action. In other words, taking into account the cost of making a decision, and using resources to think rather than act.

Decision-makers are limited in their rationality by the cognitive limitations of their minds (experience, logic), the time available to make a given decision, and the tractability of the decision problem itself (deciding the right thing at all). They are looking for a satisfactory solution rather than an optimal one. From Herbert A. Simon.

Internet adage recognizing that "the amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Aa measurement of the risk resulting from information and capabilities being lost or not being shared among team members. From the phrase, "in case they get hit by a bus."

Feeling of regret or anxiety that a person may experience after making a purchase, often associated with the fear of having made a wrong or costly decision.

The experience of a sudden urge to act on an impulse that is precisely what your judgment is telling you not to do, such as overlooking from a tall height or the urge to pull a fire alarm for no reason.

The adage that "the more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor."

The process of solving new problems based on the solutions of similar past problems.

A military strategy to stop the expansion of an enemy.

A conceptual framework used to aid decision-making. Described as a "sense-making device", Cynefin offers five decision-making contexts or 'domains'— obvious, complicated, complex, chaotic, and disorder—that help managers to identify how they perceive situations and make sense of their own and other people's behavior.

A Latin maxim meaning "In matters of taste, there can be no disputes" — suggesting that personal preferences are subjective and cannot be argued as if one preference is "right" or "wrong".

The phenomenon where consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is "asymmetrically dominated", that is, inferior in all respects to one option, but compared to the other option is inferior in some and superior in other respects — thereby nudging a preference for the dominating option.

The observation that if making an option a 'default' option increases the likelihood that it is chosen.

The willful decision not to know the answer to a question, even if the answer is free, that is, i.e. with no search costs.

The observation that people tend to paradoxically provide more articulate and explicit goals for lower priority areas of their lives than the most important and centered.

The reusable form of a solution to a design problem.

A paradox in social choice theory where aggregating judgments with majority voting can result in self-contradictory judgments.

The tendency to view two options as more distinctive when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.

In problem-solving, 'convergent thinking' is the type of thinking used to solve narrowly-defined problems with straightforward and agreed upon solutions. 'Divergent thinking', by contrast, is the type of thinking with no obvious solutions and pathways towards one may explore a variety of options.

Recursively breaking down a problem into two or more sub-problems of the same or related type, until these become simple enough to be solved directly.

A philosophical and ethical perspective that encourages individuals to consider all causes and actions, and then act in the way that brings about the greatest positive impact, based on their values.

A set of decision-making principles where entrepreneurs determine goals according to the resources in their possession, contrasted with 'causation', where entrepreneurs will determine goals to achieve and look for the resources to do so.

A person's tendency to attribute a value to an outcome, which they had to put effort into achieving, greater than the objective value of the outcome.

The idea that self-control or willpower draws upon a limited pool of mental resources that can be used up. There have both been studies to support and to question the validity of ego-depletion as a theory.

Egg-laying wool milk sow.

The idea that there is a question where, if answered, likely answers subsequent questions as well.

The time management adage that what is important is seldom urgent, and what is urgent is seldom important.

A theory of perception and cognition biases referring to how humans think and make decisions using heuristics and biases that have survived evolutionary history, because they hold some evolutionary benefits.

Pattern of behavior in which an individual or group facing increasingly negative outcomes from a decision, action, or investment nevertheless continues the behavior instead of altering course.

A strategic means of leaving one's current situation, either after a predetermined objective has been achieved, or as a strategy to mitigate failure.

Assuming that only two alternative statements are held to be the only possible options when in reality there are more.

German term that literally translates to "finger-tip feeling." and describes a highly developed sense of intuition, sensitivity, or instinct, often in the context of skilled or strategic decision-making. This term is used to convey a kind of immediate, almost tactile understanding or awareness that allows someone to make quick, effective judgments without needing to rely solely on deliberate, analytical thought.

The design principle that as the flexibility of a system increases, its usability decreases. The tradeoff exists because accommodating flexibility requires satisfying a larger set of requirements, which results in complexity and usability compromises.

A solution that people will tend to use in the absence of communication, because it seems natural, special, or relevant to them.

An activity that forces one to take action and produce a result.

The notion that, in contrast to interpretations of their own behavior, people tend to (unduly) emphasize the agent's internal characteristics (character or intention), rather than external factors, in explaining other people's behavior — i.e. the tendency to believe that what people do reflects who they are.

The study of mathematical models of strategic interaction between rational decision-makers.

Aa psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.

Phenomenon in which individuals become overconfident and underestimate the risks associated with certain tasks or activities, leading to increased risk-taking behavior.

Any approach to problem solving, learning, or discovery that employs a practical method — not guaranteed to be optimal, perfect, logical, or rational — but instead sufficient for reaching an immediate goal.

Describes the time it takes for a person to make a decision as a result of the possible choices he or she has: increasing the number of choices will increase the decision time logarithmically.

When different methods of comparison are used, leaving a false impression of the whole comparison.

The categorization of knowledge about a topic where 'known unknowns' are risks that one is aware of, while 'unknown unknowns' are risks that come from situations that are so unexpected that they would not be considered.

A non-conventional solution or hack to a problem — often both frugal in nature and demonstrating a degree of creativity.

A workaround or quick-and-dirty solution that is clumsy, inelegant, inefficient, difficult to extend and hard to maintain, yet nonetheless is operational.

In statistics and decision theory, the risk that results when a statistical model assumes the normal distribution, but is applied to observations that have a tendency to occasionally be much farther (in terms of number of standard deviations) from the average than is expected for a normal distribution.

Solving problems through an indirect and creative approach, i.e. using reasoning that is not immediately obvious and involving ideas that may not be obtainable by using only traditional step-by-step logic.

A fundamental principle of gestalt which says that people will perceive and interpret ambiguous or complex images as the simplest form(s) possible.

A type of preference reversal that occurs when the lesser or smaller alternative of a proposition is preferred when evaluated separately, but not evaluated together.

The practice of considering the future implications of current choices in the context of future situations, where there might be short-term losses strategically made in favor of the potential for long-term gains down the road.

In statistics, a model which describes a distribution of occurrences where a large portion of the distribution are far from the "head" or central part of the distribution. Often applied in a business, to apply to business models that can offer many different varieties of uncommon goods (Amazon or Netflix), as opposed to few varieties of common goods (Walmart).

A pricing strategy where a product is sold at a price below its market cost to stimulate other sales of more profitable goods or services.

The fallacy of making decisions based solely on \*observable\* metrics, while ignoring all others.

An explanation of a thought process, typically in a more abstract form, about how something works in the real world.

Algorithmic approach for building simulations and predictive models where the intervention of random variables makes them hard to predict in more standard models.

The tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated.

Solutions to problems are rejected because they are not perfect solutions to that problem.

An extreme act or action of last resort that while addressing a particular problem, also has significant costs associated with its use,

A notion that positive reinforcement and indirect suggestions as ways to steer or influence the behavior and decision making of groups or individuals (while still preserving freedom of choice).

A problem-solving principle which says that all else being equal, the simplest solution is more often the correct one.

The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral than equally harmful omissions (inactions) because actions are more obvious than inactions.

The decision cycle of Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.

Causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.

An error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.

When an expected external incentive such as money or prizes decreases a person's intrinsic motivation to perform a task.

The observation that too many choices can be anxiety-inducing, and that by eliminating choices can, one can greatly reduce anxiety.

Often in architecture, the basic form, diagram, or statement of a design decision.

How the set of decisions one faces for any given circumstance is limited by the decisions one has made in the past or by the events that one has experienced, even though past circumstances may no longer be relevant.

Causes a person to believe that they are at a greater risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.

In business, a type of defensive tactic used by a corporation's board of directors against a takeover. Typically, such a plan gives shareholders the right to buy more shares at a discount if one shareholder buys a certain percentage or more of the company's shares.

A construction built solely to deceive others into believing that a situation is better than it really is.

A managerial strategy in which a project team imagines that a project or organization has failed, and then works backward to determine what potentially could lead to the failure of the project or organization.

A strategy of keeping one's options open and available as long as possible (resisting the urge to choose too soon), while uncertainties can still possibly be clarified.

An expression for a way of life that is thought to be easy and pleasant, but in fact, leads to a negative result.

A theory in cognitive psychology that describes the way people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are uncertain. The theory states that people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome, and that people evaluate these losses and gains using some heuristics. The model is descriptive as it tries to model real-life choices, rather than optimal decisions, as normative models do.

A type of preferential voting method used in single-seat elections with more than two candidates. Instead of voting only for a single candidate, voters in ranked-choice elections can rank the candidates in order of preference. Ballots are initially counted for each elector's top choice, losing candidates are eliminated, and ballots for losing candidates are redistributed until one candidate is the top remaining choice of a majority of the voters.

A cognitive bias that occurs when a proposal is devalued if it appears to originate from an antagonist.

Used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty, in assessing similarity of objects and organizing them based around the category prototype (e.g., like goes with like, and causes and effects should resemble each other). However, people overestimate this heuristic to accurately predict the likelihood of an event, and it can result in neglect of relevant base rates and other cognitive biases.

A method of analyzing choices made by individuals, mostly used for comparing the influence of policies on consumer behavior — and assumes that the preferences of consumers can be revealed by their purchasing habits.

The two types of decision consequences, where reversible decisions can be unwound in a reasonable period of time, and an irreversible decision that are usually difficult or impossible to reverse.

A theory which suggests that people typically adjust their behavior in response to the perceived level of risk, becoming more careful where they sense greater risk and less careful if they feel more protected.

The tendency to use highly visible or shocking traits to make a judgment or determination about a person or a situation.

Satisfy' and 'suffice' — decision-making strategy where one searches through available alternatives until an acceptability threshold is met.

A skewed focus on short-term results at the expense of long-term interests.

Assuming that a preferred technical solution can solve a larger process or problem.

The belief that all difficulties have benign solutions, often of a technocratic nature.

A forced decision with no positive outcome.

A theory of organizational management and ethics that addresses morals and values in decision-making, particularly at the management level, and address the principle of who or what really counts.

An emotional bias for a preference for the current state of affairs.

Strategy is a set of choices used to achieve an overall objective whereas tactics are the specific actions used when applying those strategic choices.

Decision-making principle that suggests that the best time to make a decision is when the maximum amount of information is available, but not so late that the decision cannot be made in time to meet its intended purpose.

The notion that there is a dichotomy between two "modes" of thought: ‘System 1' representing the fast, instinctive and emotional, where ‘System 2' is slower, more deliberative, and more logical.

The narrative or testimony of an impartial observer or a mediator would tell — a version of events both sides can agree on.

A problem-solving methodology that emphasizes the use of inventive principles and patterns to find creative solutions to technical problems.

A trick or strategy that causes a target to invite a foe into a securely protected place.

A moral thought experiment in ethics where one is asked to make a decision upon seeing a trolley speeding towards five incapacitated individuals on a track — to activate a switch that redirects the trolley to a separate track that will kill only one person, or passively do nothing and allow the trolley to kill the five individuals.

A situation where a series of small, individually rational decisions can negatively change the context of subsequent choices, even to the point where desired alternatives are irreversibly destroyed.

A freely made decision that is designed and intended to bind oneself in the future.

Systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Some are effects of information-processing rules (i.e., mental shortcuts), called heuristics, that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. Biases have a variety of forms and appear as cognitive ("cold") bias, such as mental noise, or motivational ("hot") bias, such as when beliefs are distorted by wishful thinking. Both effects can be present at the same time.

Japanese term that refers to a clever or unconventional solution or hack that solves a problem in a simple and efficient way, often using everyday items or resources.

A classic ethical thought experiment and method of determining the morality of a certain issue (e.g., slavery) by asserting that parties to an original position ought to know nothing about the particular abilities, tastes, and positions individuals will have within a social order. When such parties are selecting the principles for distribution of rights, positions, and resources in the society in which they will live, the veil of ignorance prevents them from knowing who will receive a given distribution of rights, positions, and resources in that society.

Phrase used to describe the frustration or resentment that individuals may feel when they are not included in decision-making processes that directly affect them or their work.

A problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize, and because of complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other problems. In other words, a problem whose social complexity means that it has no determinable stopping point.

A strategy that wins a lesser objective but overlooks and loses the true intended objective.

A tendency to prefer the complete elimination of a risk even when alternative options produce a greater reduction in risk (overall). For example, war against terrorism as opposed to reducing the risk of traffic accidents or gun violence.