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Path Dependence

How the set of decisions one faces for any given circumstance is limited by the decisions one has made in the past or by the events that one has experienced, even though past circumstances may no longer be relevant.

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Origin

Stanford economists Paul A. David and Brian Arthur introduced the concept in the 1980s–1990s, studying how inefficient technologies become locked in as industry standards. David's 1985 paper "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY" used the keyboard layout to show how first-to-market standards persist despite superior alternatives. Arthur's 1989 work emphasized "increasing returns to adoption" and positive feedback loops. Economist Douglass C. North applied path dependence to institutional change, cementing it as foundational to modern economic analysis.

Updated February 22, 2026