Gate's Law
The adage from Bill Gates that, "Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years."
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Origin
The exact origin is uncertain. The quote is widely attributed to Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft in 1975. However, comprehensive searches of Gates's writings, speeches, and interviews do not definitively locate the original source. Similar sentiments have been expressed by other figures, and the attribution to Gates may be apocryphal or a paraphrase of his broader philosophy on long-term vision and incremental progress. The saying has circulated widely in business and technology contexts since at least the 1990s–2000s, often without specific sourcing.
Updated February 22, 2026