Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Cherry-picking data clusters to suit an argument while ignoring the data that doesn't fit. Like painting a target around bullet holes and calling it marksmanship.
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Origin
The exact origin of the name is disputed, but the underlying metaphor — a Texan who fires at a barn wall, then paints a bull's-eye around the tightest cluster of holes — first appeared in the scientific literature in 1977, when epidemiologist Seymour Grufferman used it to warn against misreading disease clusters in a paper on Hodgkin's disease. The named fallacy spread through epidemiology and critical-thinking circles during the 1990s.
Updated February 22, 2026