Normalcy Bias
Normality Bias
A belief people hold when facing a disaster which causes them to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects, because people believe that things will always function the way things normally have functioned.
Origin
The concept emerged from mid-20th-century disaster research, particularly studies by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago, which conducted field studies of civilian disaster responses between 1950 and 1954. Researchers observed that people consistently underestimated threats and delayed evacuation. Survival psychologist John Leach at Lancaster University later formalized related concepts around cognitive paralysis under threat. Journalist Amanda Ripley brought the term to popular attention in her 2008 book The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes and the concept entered wider use in the disaster preparedness community.
Everyday Use
When a fire alarm goes off, most people look around to see what everyone else is doing rather than heading for the exit. We assume it's a drill, a false alarm, or someone else's problem. This "it can't happen to me" reflex causes dangerous delays — during real emergencies, people waste critical minutes trying to fit the situation into their idea of normal.