All concepts

Impact Bias

Durability Bias

The tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of future emotional states.

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Origin

Psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert coined the term "impact bias" around 2000 while studying college sports fans' predictions about how wins and losses would affect their happiness. The concept grew out of their broader research program on affective forecasting, which they had been developing through the 1990s. A key finding was focalism — people fixate on the anticipated event and underestimate how much other life events will dilute its emotional impact.

Everyday Use

You imagine that getting the promotion will make you happy for months, or that a breakup will devastate you forever. In reality, you adapt faster than you'd expect. Impact bias is why we over-invest in chasing highs and over-dread potential lows — the emotional future is never as extreme as it feels in preview.

Updated February 22, 2026