First-Order Vs. Second-Order Effects
First order effects directly follow from a cause, while second order effects follow from first order effects.
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Origin
The distinction traces to Frederic Bastiat's 1850 essay "What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen", which argued that a good economist considers not only the immediate visible effect of a policy but also the successive unseen consequences. The formal "first-order" and "second-order" terminology later became standard across economics, systems theory, and cybernetics, where Heinz von Foerster developed the framework in the 1970s.
Updated February 22, 2026