Below-Average Effect
Worse-Than-Average Effect
The tendency to underestimate your own abilities relative to others, especially in areas where you feel inexpert. The flip side of overconfidence.
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Origin
In 1999, psychologist Justin Kruger described the effect in "Lake Wobegon Be Gone! The 'Below-Average Effect' and the Egocentric Nature of Comparative Ability Judgments," published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. The research was conducted at Cornell University, where Kruger showed that people anchor on their own skill level and under-adjust for peers — yielding above-average self-ratings on easy tasks, but below-average self-ratings on difficult ones.
Updated February 22, 2026