Amara's Law
The adage of overestimating the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimating the effect in the long run.
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Origin
Attributed to Roy Amara (1925–2007), who spent decades as president of the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto. Despite its wide citation in technology circles, the exact date and original source of the remark remain uncertain — it may have emerged from his speeches on long-range forecasting during the 1960s–70s.
Updated February 22, 2026