Affective Forecasting
Hedonic Forecasting · Projection Bias
Predicting how you'll feel in the future about an event or decision. Research shows people consistently overestimate both the intensity and duration of their future emotions.
Origin
Psychologists Timothy Wilson of the University of Virginia and Daniel Gilbert of Harvard coined the term "affective forecasting" in the 1990s, building on earlier work by Daniel Kahneman and Richard Snell on hedonic predictions. Wilson and Gilbert's research program revealed systematic errors — including impact bias and focalism — that cause people to overestimate how strongly and how long future events will affect their emotions.
Everyday Use
Before a vacation you imagine non-stop bliss; before a dentist visit you dread unbearable pain. In both cases the reality turns out to be less extreme than the preview. We're surprisingly bad at predicting our own emotional futures, and it shapes everything from career choices to impulse purchases.