Illusion of Validity

Bias where a person overestimates their ability to accurately interpret and predict an outcome when analyzing a set of data, particularly when patterns "tell" a story of the data — despite all of the factors that may limit abilities to interpret and predict in the first place. From Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky — people often predict by selecting the output that is most representative of the input, even when the data is unreliable, outdated, or scanty.