Hindsight Bias
Looking backwards after an event has occurred and arguing for its obvious predictability, when in fact at the time it was not or was much harder to predict.
EverydayConcepts.io
Origin
In 1975, Baruch Fischhoff — then a doctoral student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem under Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman — conducted the first experimental study of what he initially called "creeping determinism." Inspired by Paul Meehl's observation that clinicians routinely claimed to have foreseen outcomes they had not actually predicted, Fischhoff designed experiments showing that people consistently inflated the likelihood of outcomes they had been told were true.
Updated February 22, 2026