Gray Rhino
An analogy referring to a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat. Example include the impact of new technologies, global climate change, rising inequality, etc.
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Origin
Policy analyst Michele Wucker introduced the concept at the 2013 World Economic Forum in Davos, then developed it fully in her 2016 book The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore. Wucker designed the metaphor to complement Nassim Taleb's unforeseeable "black swan" — a gray rhino is the highly probable, high-impact threat charging straight at you that nonetheless gets ignored.
Updated February 22, 2026