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Conjunction Fallacy

Linda Problem

A formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.

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Origin

Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman identified and named the conjunction fallacy in their 1982 research, formally proposing it in their 1983 publication. The famous "Linda problem" asked undergraduates to judge whether it was more probable that Linda (31, single, outspoken, bright) was a bank teller, or a bank teller active in feminism; 86% judged the conjunction more probable than the single condition, violating probability theory. Tversky and Kahneman attributed the error to the representativeness heuristic.

Updated February 22, 2026