Bayes' Theorem
Bayesian Thinking
Mode of applying probability where rather than thinking in terms of frequency or likelihood of some phenomenon, one thinks in terms of current expectations, current states of knowledge, and a quantification of personal belief, wherein new information is processed in a systematic way as it comes in to continually improve on a given estimate.
Origin
Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes derived the theorem before his death in 1761. His friend Richard Price edited the manuscript and presented An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances to the Royal Society in 1763. Independently, Pierre-Simon Laplace reproduced and extended the results in 1774, formalizing Bayesian probability in Théorie analytique des probabilités (1812).