Appeal to Probability Fallacy

Also known as possibiliter ergo probabiliter (Latin: "possibly, therefore probably"), this fallacy emerged as a named informal error in the 20th century alongside developments in statistical methods and informal logic. While Aristotle distinguished demonstrative proofs from probable arguments in antiquity, and John Stuart Mill critiqued inductive fallacies in A System of Logic (1843), the specific term lacks a documented originator. The fallacy itself is likely as old as human reasoning about probability and possibility.